In order to promote the entry and consumption of foreign tourists, the Thai government announced on October 12th the legalization of the gambling industry. At present, the Thai parliament is reviewing the text of the Entertainment Place Bill submitted by the Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Finance has publicly announced and solicited opinions on its content before August 18, 2024. It is expected that the draft will be officially released soon after adjustments, and Thailand is expected to welcome its first legal casino opening in 2027.

In Thailand, any form of gambling activity is illegal, except for state-owned lottery and licensed horse racing. Industry observers believe that if operated properly, Thailand’s attractiveness as a popular tourist destination will be further strengthened, and by 2030, the second largest economy in Southeast Asia will become the biggest competitor to Macau and Singapore in China. CNBC cited financial reports from various operating companies, stating that in the first half of this year, the revenue of casinos in Macau, China reached $14.16 billion, while the revenue of two casinos in Singapore was $2.53 billion.

Thailand has unique cultural and geographical resources, with tourism revenue accounting for approximately 12% of the country’s GDP (514.945 billion US dollars) in 2023. Although it has been two years since the end of the COVID-19, its economic growth is still slow (GDP growth of 1.9% in 2023). The former Prime Minister Seta has introduced a series of measures to stimulate the tourism industry and strengthen domestic infrastructure construction before stepping down. The legalization of casinos is an important breakthrough.

The draft proposes to issue up to 5 comprehensive entertainment venue business licenses, with a maximum validity period of 30 years for the operating license, which can be renewed for another 10 years after expiration. Developers need to pay a registration fee of 5 billion baht (approximately 150 million US dollars) and an annual fee of 1 billion baht (approximately 30 million US dollars). The government conducts an evaluation once a year.

In addition to the casino, developers must also construct resorts, amusement parks, beaches, and conference centers, with the casino area accounting for no more than 5%, in order to qualify for a casino license. The Marina Bay Sands Hotel in Singapore, which opened in June 2010, cost £ 4 billion. The entertainment complex includes a luxury casino, renowned chef restaurants and bars, a rooftop swimming pool, and an arts and science museum.

The Thai draft proposes a 17% casino tax on the total revenue from gambling (GGR). By comparison, Las Vegas accounts for 10%, Singapore for 17%, and Macau for 35%. According to an independent report by the House Select Committee, it is expected that the project will generate at least 12 billion Thai baht in tax revenue for Thailand in the first year. In addition, each integrated entertainment venue is expected to attract investments of 30 billion (approximately 870 million US dollars) to 50 billion Thai baht (approximately 1.46 billion US dollars) and create 30000 job opportunities. The casino business may drive a 52% increase in tourist consumption.

The report of the House Select Committee also calculated through a model that at least 10% of foreign tourists are willing to go off and try their luck. The Tourism Authority of Thailand predicts that the total number of foreign tourists entering the country this year is expected to approach 36 million, making 3.6 million a very considerable customer base.

In addition, all casinos must be located within 100 kilometers of the airport and operated by entities registered in Thailand. As for the location of the project, analysts predict that it may not be in the center of the capital Bangkok, as there are not enough land resources here. The less populated areas of the Eastern Economic Corridor, Phuket, Chumphon, Rayong, Beiliu, and Chiang Mai have greater opportunities. At least six major international industry giants have expressed interest in development, including Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Caesar Entertainment, MGM, Hard Rock Restaurant, and Galaxy Entertainment.

For individuals, gambling behavior may affect their mental health, finances, family, and community relationships. In view of this, Thailand’s draft stipulates that casinos are forbidden for people under the age of 20. Locals must buy tickets of 5000 baht (about 150 dollars), and foreigners can enter for free. But recent polls in the country have found that as many as 74% of people in Thailand support the legalization of casinos. And the data model of the Ministry of Finance also shows that 90% of the potential customers attracted at that time will be local residents.

Opposition officials point out that overseas experience has shown that government taxes have not increased with the legalization of casinos, and organized crime such as money laundering derived from the casino economy, as well as individual drug addiction, may generate huge social costs and impose a heavy burden on the government. The Philippine government opened up the offshore gambling market in 2016, but gradually gave rise to a black industry chain, causing extremely negative impacts.

Douglas Walker, an economics professor at Charleston College in the United States, also mentioned in his research paper that from the experience of developed casino markets in different judicial systems such as Australia, Canada, Macau, and the United Kingdom, the contribution of casino legalization to the government is not always positive. Moreover, the actual national conditions of each country are different, and there is no clear conclusion on whether the economic benefits are worth the heavy social costs.

On July 17, 2024, in Osaka, Japan, the artificial island of “Mengzhou” will host the 2025 Osaka World Expo. The next World Expo will be held here from April 13th to October 13th, 2025.

In addition to the “old money” in regions such as Macau, Singapore, and Vietnam, Thailand will also face competition from the “new aristocracy” in the future. In April of this year, the Japanese government approved the opening of Japan’s first comprehensive resort, including a casino and conference center, on an artificial island at the Osaka World Expo venue. It is planned to be completed and open for business in the fall of 2030, with an expected annual revenue of 520 billion yen (approximately 3.5 billion US dollars), most of which comes from the gambling industry. It is expected to attract 6 million international tourists and 14 million domestic tourists annually. The two project applications for Nagasaki and Wakayama are still under evaluation.

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为促进外国游客入境消费，泰国政府10月12日宣布博彩业合法化。目前泰国议会正对财政部提交的《娱乐场所法案》文本进行审议。财政部已就其内容在2024年8月18日之前进行了公示并征集意见，预计草案经过调整之后很快会正式出台，泰国有望在2027年迎来第一家合法赌场开业。

　　在泰国，除了国营彩票和有执照的赛马外，任何形式的赌博活动均为非法。行业观察人士认为，如果经营得当，届时泰国作为热门旅游目的地的吸引力会得到进一步强化，到2030年之前，这个东南亚第二大经济体会成为中国澳门和新加坡的最大竞争对手。CNBC援引各运营公司的财务报告，今年上半年，中国澳门赌场的收入达到141.6亿美元，而新加坡的两家赌场则为25.3亿美元。

　　泰国具备独特的人文和地理资源，2023年旅游收入约占该国GDP（5149.45亿美元）的12%。尽管新冠肺炎疫情结束已两年，但其经济增长仍然缓慢（2023年GDP增长1.9%），前总理赛塔在下台之前便已出台系列措施拉动旅游业和加强国内基础设施建设，赌场合法化正是重要突破口。

　　草案提议最多发放5张综合娱乐场所营业牌照，经营许可证的最长有效期为30年，到期后可再续签10年。开发商需要支付50亿泰铢（约合1.5亿美元）的注册费和10亿泰铢（约合3000万美元）的年费。政府每年进行一次评估。

　　除了赌场，开发商还必须同时建设度假村、游乐园、海滩以及会议中心，其中赌场面积占比不得超过5%，才有资格获得赌场牌照。2010年6月开业的新加坡滨海湾金沙酒店耗资40亿英镑，该娱乐综合体内有豪华赌场、名厨餐厅酒吧、顶层泳池，以及艺术科学博物馆。

　　泰国草案中对博彩的总收入（GGR）按照17%的比例收取赌场税。相比之下，拉斯维加斯为10%，新加坡为17%，澳门为35%。另据众议院特别委员会的独立报告，预计该项目第一年可为泰国带来至少120亿泰铢的税收。另外，每个综合娱乐场所预计吸引300亿（约合8.7亿美元）-500亿泰铢（约合14.6亿美元）的投资，并创造30000个就业岗位。其中赌场业务可能带动游客消费增加52%。

　　众议院特别委员会的报告还通过模型计算出，外国游客中至少有10%愿意下场试试手气。泰国国家旅游局预计，今年入境的外国游客总数有望接近3600万，按此计算，360万也是非常可观的客户群。

　　此外，所有赌场的选址必须位于机场100公里范围内，由在泰国注册的实体运营。至于项目落户地点，分析人士预测可能不在首都曼谷市中心，因为这里已经没有足够的土地资源，人口较少的东部经济走廊区、普吉、春武里、罗勇、北柳、清迈机会更大一些。至少6大国际行业巨头表达了开发兴趣，包括拉斯维加斯金沙、永利度假村、凯撒娱乐、美高梅、硬石餐厅以及银河娱乐。

　　对于个人而言，赌博行为可能影响其心理健康、财务、家庭和社区关系。鉴于此，泰国的草案规定赌场禁止20岁以下人士进入，本地人须购买5000泰铢（约合150美元）的门票，外国人免费进场。但该国最近的民意调查发现，全泰多达74%的人支持赌场合法化。而财政部的数据模型也表明，届时吸引到的潜在顾客有90%是本地居民。

　　反对派官员则指出，海外经验所表明，政府的税收并没有随着赌场合法化而增加，而且赌场经济衍生而来的洗钱等有组织犯罪，以及个人毒瘾可能催生巨大的社会成本，给政府带来沉重的负担。菲律宾政府在2016年开放离岸博彩市场，却逐渐衍生出了黑色产业链条，造成极其恶劣的影响。

　　而美国查尔斯顿学院的经济学教授道格拉斯·沃克则曾在其研究课题论文中也提到，从澳大利亚、加拿大、中国澳门、英国等不同司法体系发达赌场市场的经验看，赌场合法化对政府的贡献并不总是积极的，而各国实际国情不同，其经济受益是否值得付出沉重社会成本，还没有明确的定论。

　　2024年7月17日，日本大阪，2025年大阪世博会的举办地“梦洲”人工岛。下一届世博会将于2025年4月13日至10月13日在此举行。

　　除了中国澳门、新加坡、越南等区域内“老钱”，未来泰国还要面临来自“新贵”的竞争。今年4月，日本政府批准在大阪世博会会场的人工岛上开设日本首个囊括赌场、会议中心在内的综合度假村，计划在2030年秋季建成营业，预计年收入5200亿日元（约合35亿美元），其中大部份来自博彩业务，每年有望吸引600万人次国际游客以及1400万人次国内游客。而长崎与和歌山的两个项目申请仍在评估之中。

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